German military study on Peak Oil

The Guardian: World will be drawn into a conflict for resources

Complete English translation of German military analysis of peak oil now available

by Rick Munroe

Website: Energy bulletin

Last week the Bundeswehr posted an English version (112 pgs) of their extraordinary analysis of peak oil. The original German document (125 pgs) was approved for public release last November, yet neither the complete German version nor the partial English translation has attracted interest from mainstream media.

Now that a complete translation is available, it is hoped that media throughout the English-speaking world will see the Bundeswehr study for what it is: a comprehensive, realistic analysis of one of the most formidable challenges of this century, the (potentially imminent) peaking of global oil production.

The tone of the Bundeswehr document is consistent with written warnings issued by other military analysts and stands in stark contrast to the disinterest of elected officials, bureaucrats and industry officials. The latter sectors have routinely dismissed the concerns of peak oil analysts, but this thoroughly sourced examination (which was conducted by a team of highly credible military analysts from a leading Western nation and approved by their top brass) gives credence to the view that the peaking of global oil production constitutes a threat which appears to be as serious as it is inevitable.

It is hoped that mainstream media, government officials and civic leaders will now examine this unique study, noting especially the credibility of its authors and the gravity of their warnings. The fact that the Bundeswehr has made the effort to provide an English translation is the latest indication that rather than concealing this worrisome information, the German military continues to make every effort to provide it to a world which urgently needs to consider it.

As the Bundeswehr analysts politely point out, there seems to be an instinctive refusal to acknowledge our unprecedented dilemma (which perhaps explains why their study remains so ignored):

Gaining an illustrative picture of a subject is very much a matter of habit. When considering the consequences of peak oil, no everyday experiences and only few historical parallels are at hand. It is therefore difficult to imagine how significant the effects of being gradually deprived of one of our civilisation’s most important energy sources will be. Psychological barriers cause indisputable facts to be blanked out and lead to almost instinctively refusing to look into this difficult subject in detail.

Peak oil, however, is unavoidable (p. 91).

Thanks to the Bundeswehr Future Analysis team for their thorough & insightful study. Credit also to their superior officers for releasing such a potentially controversial document and for now providing a complete translation.

Finally, thanks to researcher Johan Landgren in Sweden for alerting us to the new translation of this unprecedented document.

Download the English version of the report here.